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    USG Charting a Rollercoaster

    Friday, March 16, 2007

    It happens so often that one buys a stock for the right reasons but sells them for the wrong ones. I make that mistake frequently, but with USG, I am going to keep reminding myself why I own it.

    Here is a stock that is practically flat since last summer, while the rest of the market has seen a significant move up. In December, the stock finally hit $58, up from around $45 in summer, only to fall back to $52 by January even in the face of positive market momentum. By February, USG hit $58 again but the market declines pushed it down to that coveted $52 level. Just when one would have expected the stock to stabilize for the next move up, the company frustrated investors by making a share offering of some 8 million shares at $48.60, so guess what, the shares are now at $48.60.

    Normally, this kind of behavior is reason enough for me to sell, and I often kick myself for doing so. This time around, I have actually written myself sticky notes and stuck them to my monitor to remind me why I own this stock.

    The company is doing the share offering to pay for an acquisition that will allow it to expand operations on the West coast. This is a good move for USG and it is clear that management is thinking more of the long-term than the short. They are also going to use their $1 billion tax return to pay down debt. It is no surprise that Warren Buffett owns 19% of this company and with his cost basis at around $45, we are not far from there he bought the stock.

    Additionally, we can be rest assured that by pricing the new offering at these levels, that the stock is unlikely to go any lower. Therefore, we have a good long term bottom here. And keep in mind that this offering, much like an IPO puts the price of the stock lower than what its worth, so that the firms brokering the deal and investors who finance the offering are guaranteed a profit soon after.

    I believe USG is a good bet for the long term and it won't be long before the stock hits $58 again.

    -- Faisal Laljee
    Full Disclosure: I own USG for my portfolio but my position can change anytime without notice.

    1:11 PM | Labels: USG, Warren Buffett |  

    This entry was posted on 1:11 PM and is filed under USG , Warren Buffett . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

    2 comments:

    Anonymous said...

    Much of Buffets holdings were purchased at a price less then 10 when the company was in bankruptcy.

    He was simply dollar cost averaging on the latest purchases

    March 19, 2007 8:12 AM
    Ishtmeet said...

    Faisal,
    What do you think housing downturn effect is factored into the current stock price?

    March 20, 2007 7:06 AM

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