Comments on: Is the Housing Market Doomed? http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=is-housing-market-doomed Thu, 24 Dec 2009 05:54:24 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Ryan http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html/comment-page-2#comment-256 Ryan Mon, 18 Sep 2006 14:52:00 +0000 http://blog.stocksandblogs.com/?p=115#comment-256 I am talking about the value of the land the home builders have on book as compared to their market cap. The book value is frequently lower than actual value depending on when it was purchased. I am talking about the value of the land the home builders have on book as compared to their market cap. The book value is frequently lower than actual value depending on when it was purchased.

]]> By: Faisal Laljee http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html/comment-page-2#comment-246 Faisal Laljee Fri, 15 Sep 2006 16:29:00 +0000 http://blog.stocksandblogs.com/?p=115#comment-246 Ryan - I am not sure if I understood you correctly, but are you asking about the price of land as opposed to the actual home on the land? Ryan – I am not sure if I understood you correctly, but are you asking about the price of land as opposed to the actual home on the land?

]]> By: Ryan http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html/comment-page-2#comment-245 Ryan Thu, 14 Sep 2006 19:18:00 +0000 http://blog.stocksandblogs.com/?p=115#comment-245 Thoughts on land book value? Thoughts on land book value?

]]> By: Larry Nusbaum http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html/comment-page-2#comment-241 Larry Nusbaum Wed, 13 Sep 2006 21:24:00 +0000 http://blog.stocksandblogs.com/?p=115#comment-241 "On a side note, I went to biz school at ASU so very familiar with your neck of the woods."<br/><br/>I AM WATCHING CAREFULLY THE BUBBLE IN PRETTY GIRLS WITH LITTLE SHORTS WALKING FREELY ON THE ASU CAMPUS.<br/><br/>"However, in the last 3-6 months, prices have dropped 5-15%" - In real estate, that is a huge range. I have seen no numbers to support this. “On a side note, I went to biz school at ASU so very familiar with your neck of the woods.”

I AM WATCHING CAREFULLY THE BUBBLE IN PRETTY GIRLS WITH LITTLE SHORTS WALKING FREELY ON THE ASU CAMPUS.

“However, in the last 3-6 months, prices have dropped 5-15%” – In real estate, that is a huge range. I have seen no numbers to support this.

]]> By: Faisal Laljee http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html/comment-page-1#comment-237 Faisal Laljee Wed, 13 Sep 2006 16:06:00 +0000 http://blog.stocksandblogs.com/?p=115#comment-237 Larry - If someone bought a home 2 or more years ago, the value has not dropped much from the purchase price. However, in the last 3-6 months, prices have dropped 5-15% at least in Southern California (my father-in-law is a realtor).<br/><br/>BTW - I hope housing does not go down. I own 2 properties in So Cal and I would stand to lose. :)<br/><br/>On a side note, I went to biz school at ASU so very familiar with your neck of the woods. <br/><br/>-- Faisal Laljee Larry – If someone bought a home 2 or more years ago, the value has not dropped much from the purchase price. However, in the last 3-6 months, prices have dropped 5-15% at least in Southern California (my father-in-law is a realtor).

BTW – I hope housing does not go down. I own 2 properties in So Cal and I would stand to lose. :)

On a side note, I went to biz school at ASU so very familiar with your neck of the woods.

– Faisal Laljee

]]> By: Larry Nusbaum http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html/comment-page-1#comment-236 Larry Nusbaum Wed, 13 Sep 2006 13:19:00 +0000 http://blog.stocksandblogs.com/?p=115#comment-236 Yes, "equity" is not profit. So, he loses money below $1.2 million.<br/>And, what you are saying is at $1.7 million, his asset appreciated $500,000? (only 40%)<br/>He may have bought poorly, but, perhaps $1.9 million was not the market?<br/>I do not believe median home prices have come down at all, yet. <br/>There is evidence of that starting here in Phoenix-Mesa by about $2,000 Yes, “equity” is not profit. So, he loses money below $1.2 million.
And, what you are saying is at $1.7 million, his asset appreciated $500,000? (only 40%)
He may have bought poorly, but, perhaps $1.9 million was not the market?
I do not believe median home prices have come down at all, yet.
There is evidence of that starting here in Phoenix-Mesa by about $2,000

]]> By: Faisal Laljee http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html/comment-page-1#comment-234 Faisal Laljee Wed, 13 Sep 2006 03:45:00 +0000 http://blog.stocksandblogs.com/?p=115#comment-234 Larry - he bought it for $1.2 million in 2001. So its not a situation where he is selling suddenly. Also, if he is in debt all the way to $1.54 million, he needs to obviously make the sale at over than amount, assuming he cashed out his equity of $0.34 million. <br/><br/>I am not sure what point of mine you disagree on. I believe that median home prices are going to come down further from these levels. Do you disagree? If so, why? <br/><br/>-- Faisal Laljee Larry – he bought it for $1.2 million in 2001. So its not a situation where he is selling suddenly. Also, if he is in debt all the way to $1.54 million, he needs to obviously make the sale at over than amount, assuming he cashed out his equity of $0.34 million.

I am not sure what point of mine you disagree on. I believe that median home prices are going to come down further from these levels. Do you disagree? If so, why?

– Faisal Laljee

]]> By: Larry Nusbaum http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html/comment-page-1#comment-233 Larry Nusbaum Tue, 12 Sep 2006 20:01:00 +0000 http://blog.stocksandblogs.com/?p=115#comment-233 No, Faisal, he would lose $200K if he bought it for $1.9 MM and sold it for $1.7 MM. But, This example of buying a (luxury) home at the top of a market in which you suddenly have to sell is not a good example. Afterall, as soon as you buy a house you would have to absorb the 6-7% commission if you turned around and sold. <br/>Consider this: Maybe the house was worth less than he paid at that nano-second in time.<br/>Also, the downturn in 1991-1995 was much worse for So Cal than this time around, imho. No, Faisal, he would lose $200K if he bought it for $1.9 MM and sold it for $1.7 MM. But, This example of buying a (luxury) home at the top of a market in which you suddenly have to sell is not a good example. Afterall, as soon as you buy a house you would have to absorb the 6-7% commission if you turned around and sold.
Consider this: Maybe the house was worth less than he paid at that nano-second in time.
Also, the downturn in 1991-1995 was much worse for So Cal than this time around, imho.

]]> By: Faisal Laljee http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html/comment-page-1#comment-232 Faisal Laljee Tue, 12 Sep 2006 18:33:00 +0000 http://blog.stocksandblogs.com/?p=115#comment-232 Boris - I am not a fan of Nardelli and HD still faces the CEO compensation issue. That said, both HD and LOW are breaking out of their short term down-trends so they do look good. I prefer Lowes.<br/><br/>-- Faisal Laljee Boris – I am not a fan of Nardelli and HD still faces the CEO compensation issue. That said, both HD and LOW are breaking out of their short term down-trends so they do look good. I prefer Lowes.

– Faisal Laljee

]]> By: Faisal Laljee http://stocksandblogs.com/2006/09/is-housing-market-doomed.html/comment-page-1#comment-231 Faisal Laljee Tue, 12 Sep 2006 18:21:00 +0000 http://blog.stocksandblogs.com/?p=115#comment-231 Larry - Yes most of my points were not news. I was merely recapping the points for and against the housing market in general. <br/><br/>As for why people make predictions, well, for one, it gives us a target. I was echoing my sentiment based on the drop home builders have suffered. I know for a fact that in Los Angeles, a home that was selling for 1.9 million just 8 months ago is not even fetching 1.7 million. The owner has a loan out for 1.54 million so if he does not sell for 1.60 million, he will lose money on it. Just the fact that he is willing to part at 1.7 million now shows a mere drop of 10%. I think another 15% is certainly not out of the question for certain areas and certain kind of homes. For condos, this can be worse - hence my range of 15-30%. <br/><br/>-- Faisal Laljee Larry – Yes most of my points were not news. I was merely recapping the points for and against the housing market in general.

As for why people make predictions, well, for one, it gives us a target. I was echoing my sentiment based on the drop home builders have suffered. I know for a fact that in Los Angeles, a home that was selling for 1.9 million just 8 months ago is not even fetching 1.7 million. The owner has a loan out for 1.54 million so if he does not sell for 1.60 million, he will lose money on it. Just the fact that he is willing to part at 1.7 million now shows a mere drop of 10%. I think another 15% is certainly not out of the question for certain areas and certain kind of homes. For condos, this can be worse – hence my range of 15-30%.

– Faisal Laljee

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