Is this an over-reaction? I think so. I think Yahoo is incredibly cheap and what most people do not realize is that Yahoo's earnings were in-line despite losing Microsoft as one of its search partners. At 20 times earnings, there have been very few times when Yahoo has been such a bargain, considering that quarterly revenues are up 33% over last year.
Yahoo's current search market share in the US stands at around 28% while Google's is 44% and the trend seems to indicate that Yahoo might lose more to Google. However, the Panama launch, coupled with Yahoo Japan and other ventures like delicious and Flickr, not to mention their new relationship with EBay should stabilize that trend, if not reverse it somewhat. With 400 million regular users, Yahoo is still a dominant force in the search engine wars and the stock will be rewarding for patient investors.
-- Faisal Laljee
12 comments:
I worked on Baidu all day
looking for points to support
bullish case. Google China
isnt gaining much in terms of
traction. Also Alibaba,
which has portrayed as a 3 headed Piranaha in the chinese
space is false. their B2B is
a success but thats about all.
There jumbo C2C auction site
is all free, and the search engine with the Yahoo!ch brand is a failure as admited by the
Alibaba presidend himeself in Novemeber 2005. So there is no way that Alibaba can wage 3 battles. Ebay has the dough to
outspend them in auctions, Baidu and Google are too fierce in search engine. and the Alibaba management talent is so thin, they are lucky if they hold on to the B2B sucess. Baidu chart, an appealing 12 month cup and handle breakout candidate with a 3 month handle. Iam not promising anything, but the market capitalization is
small enough and
the greenfield is big enough
to spark supersized breakout.
earnings/guidance wednesday afternoon. Baidu is somewhat of
a strong buy under $90 and a buy
under $95
one thing you need to consider
is that Google and Yahoo are
not a fair apples to apples
comparison. Google is more of
seach engine for information,
while yahoo is much more of a
portal with content and services. such as entertainment, Hollywood gossip and finaincial channels.
yahoo wants to be a lifestyle portal with lots of sticky media features while Google goal
is the
ebay of information. They are
growing apart and are not "twins" . There is talk about Yahoo search become new and improved , but Google isnt standing still and intends to continue providing the best search experience available.
And as far as cash and funding
Google has twice to piggy bank to do it then Yahoo.
Netflix earnings are after the
close monday. iam hoping this $23.01 tester for the past few days is the low end and we get a pop of $2-$3. i may write calls to get an extra $1-$2 premium on the pop. if so, i am running
into baidu dip before earnings.
the owner of yahoo! China,
Alibaba CEO
is an idiot and admited and quoted back in
Novemeber 2005 their yahoo! china
search engine sucks and may close its doors in next 12 months.
Baidu has 46% market share but
Yahoo! china has 22% of search and Google has 11% of search but tese figures are artifically inflated as they spend $$ to buy marketshare. Now that baidu has won the frahnise race those 2 are done. baidu's true market share might be closer to >55%. if so that would be even better then Google's USA positioning.
Intuitive Surgicals earnings are reported after the close tuesday. if you dont have any, i suggust you try and buy into these mini-dips like the monday afternoon 123.88 > 121.01 dip. the bot shipments should be up and so should backlog. if so, rapid 130s-140s. and intermeidate term considerations for 160s-199.
a split annoucement would be a plus. the key you might be overlooking is that a new product cycle started with a bang in January. and this has legs!
Lifecell earnings after thursday close. dull seqentials =downward action from $27.01-29.99. rich sequentials back to $30s
Last point on Baidu for today,
did you know?
Baidu has averaged the fourth
busiest web site in the world
for the last 3 months, after
yahoo!, MSN, and google...but
market cpaitalization is
tiny cheap $2.6 Billion.
tuesday...
netflix earnings stink.
i have ligthened alot so
damage was minimal here.
i'am swapping to BAIDU
which secured a rich and
dependable greenfield.
isrg- earnings after the
close. hoping for good
news on bot backlog
lifc- sales force expansion
improves sequentials prospects.
the AMD bailout with
$1 $30 strike calls is gone.
CMG- iam dumping plain
jane Ruth Chris for CMG.
i need to do due diligence
but the situation is cult
like SBUX-WFMI. i figure
the CMG from 50 to 58
on the way to xx will take
care of the 15% ruth chris
loss.
adding to Chipotles.
at seeking alpha one
analyst suggested that the
US would hold 1,200 units
while another says maybe 2,000.
while Panera is gunning for
3-4K sites.
then i said to myself
this is more McDonalds
vs. Yum! Brands. taco bell
generation 1 vs. generation
2. Then just how many
taco bells are there in
united states? 6,000.
6000 vs 500.
and so the expansion
path is wide open! this
growth story is richer
then Gamestop, Ruth Chris,
Cake, BBBY, and GYMB.
The markets around the world are booming of late and this is due to the sudden increase in the economy of USA.
regards:)
stock market trading
Wow what a crusher after hours
ISRG 101 -$21
BIDU 78 -$14
PNRA 52 -$6
AMZN 26 -$7
ISRG- i was happy w/ earnings and franchise
seems intact.
BIDU- the seqentials were 41%
and atleast 29% next quarter.
but competitors are trying
to squeeze in w/ discounting.
BIDU marketshare lifts to
>55% with this report,
from previous 43%-46%.
If sequentials hold next
quarter marketshare will be
>65%.
LIFC- i hope this holds up
tommrow with am eps but at
this point iam too terrified
to even look.
Chipoltes...
i brainstormed this and
figure this is only active
greenfield in restaurants.
I am working to figure out
true eps power per 500 units,
which i believe might be
about $1.50-$2.00 per share.
so if unit potential is
around 2,000-10,000...
the eps potential starts
at $6-$8 on first 2,000 units. Also this is like a new
generation Taco Bell front office and new generation McDonalds back office so thats
quite a growth turbine.
Thursday.
wow. Lifecell had devine
sequentials. they lifted
Alloderm by $5 million seqentially vs. the usual $3 million. this ought to be
good enough for $35 today,
>$40 year end. but instead, the federal reserve draining the money supply to fight inflation is causing equity deflation.
dirty bastards.
It seems that the ISRG-LIFC-BIDU are being beaten down
because they had 25-30% bounces
off the June lows when most
other equities were stuck near
the lows and going down in
July. so the best stories
are unable to advance! thats
not cool.
Chipoltes doesnt have much of
a bounce off the June lows
be the group is in flux.
earnings are on 7/31 but
does anyone care?
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