Two Great Investors and One Not
Jim Rogers is still bullish on commodities and he has every right to be. After all he has a record that speaks for itself.
Jeremy Siegel on the other hand, feels that commodities are in a bubble and need to come down for the market to find its legs again. Can’t argue with a Wharton Professor and the author of a bestseller.
Both of the above men are forward thinkers, innovators and great investors in their own right. Then there is Herb Greenberg, who hated Netflix at 10, Intuitive Surgical at 40, Hansens at 50 and God knows what else. I hear him whine and complain about most of the stocks that have made me a lot of money over the years, but I have yet to hear a good idea out of him that made me any money – sigh.
– Faisal Laljee
– Faisal Laljee
Netflix is one of my earthy favorites, lets work together on this one. i believed in it 1.75 years ago in the dumps down at $10 as the subcriber growth keep stacking, but recently the breakout of the 8 month base stalled, and there is concern they
wont have a smooth transition to
downloads, as Itunes threatens
to marginal the site, as has happened to Audible.
Bonus
the 7 divisions of Netflix i sense to be activitate by
large subsriber base…
1. dvd rentals
2. dvd sales
3 downloads
4. marketing
5. hollywood outsource R&D
6. content ownership
7. overnight fulliment
of light media
DVDs, Software, Cds,etc.
if correct monthly asp will
reverse the downtrend to $14 and head back towards $30.
Blockbuster has alrady proven movie buffs will spend $30 a month
on movie pass.
Long term, Netflix faces a couple of significant challenges – namely VOD and Change of DVD Format (BluRay and HDDVD). However, its already countering these challenges via its partnership with Tivo and the fact that it already has movies in HDDVD format.
Short term, threats from Apple are non-existent. After all, who would want to watch full feature length movies on a 2×2 screen? Forget families, couples and even individuals would have a hard time looking a such a small screen crowding around an iPod base. I have a Treo 650 , which has a better and larger screen than Ipods and I have a software called Pocket DVD, which converts DVD’s to a format that can be watched on the Treo. However, after one attempt, I realized that it was not worth watching the movie on such a small screen.
I do agree that it has failed to break out of its base, but if it does, it will be a pretty huge move considering it has found so many buyers in the 24-28 range.
netflix is just tricky.
it seems as if they are in the
race of their life to build
up the subscriber count to
have more influence with
studios. But heavy
weights with plenty of
pull such as Comcast,
Yahoo, Itunes, Blockbuster
all want in. In fact,
i canceled NFLX subscription
becasue of a effective
generic DVR w/ Comcast.
if the comcast DVR movie
locator/sorter
interface improves to be
like Yahoo!’s or NFLX,
its game
over for NFLX downloads.
Espically considering free
Comcast
movie channels have most of
the tail end catalog movies.
making you think Netflix
is just peddling a flea market of titles.
and now the Walmart has
just been allowed to burn
older titles as DVDs on demand with Kiosks in super centers. My other grip about NFLX is they are unable to
get a decent gross margin on this years $15 per share revenue block. gross margins are running 33%, a far cry from the hopes of 40s%.
at this point, NFLX is no
longer the crushed growth stock
value it was last year around $11. So iam just trying to let go. Apple plans to fix it so these I tunes movies play on TV.
Yes – Netflix is not qquite the value it was some 15 months ago, but its biggest asset is its 75,000 title library – something quite unsurpassable. It has dominated this niche market, which includes independent and international films. Customer churn is at an all time low and fans of Netflix live by it. While Netflix might face slowing growth, with the kind of cashflow it has, I think it can go in any direction with its business. And I like its management which has focused on their core business.